With a “supercharged” (this is Accuweather’s term, not ours) hurricane forecast for fall 2024 (and in particular, September 2024), what steps should planners be taking if their tournaments, championships and other key events are held in hurricane prone areas?
With Hurricane Debby in the rear-view (and a lot of damage as a result), there is increasing concern.
AccuWeather notes that “Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva and the team of AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting six to 10 named storms from August 27 through September 30. The historic average is six named storms during August 27 through September 30.”
And September, one of the peak months for the fall championship season, is squarely in the center of the target.
Let's be very clear on this: Cancellation insurance is not like Amazon Prime, where something can be ordered and received the next day; in fact, insurance needs to be taken care of long before a hurricane (or any other event) threatens a tournament, says John Sadler of Insurance.
“If you are talking about Event Cancellation or Weather insurance, it can be purchased well in advance," notes Sadler. "But carriers have a two-week window within which they won’t offer insurance. In other words, you can’t buy the coverage knowing that a hurricane may be on the way.”
There are no ironclad guarantees about hurricanes (or other weather, in fact); according to Accuweather, it's the last-minute nature of storms that can cause so many problems:
“It’s important that organizers know that not every tropical threat will develop in the open Atlantic, where forecasters are able to provide a week’s worth of notice and forecast updates before a storm reaches the shore. Some storms can develop or rapidly intensify near the coast. It’s a good idea for organizers in hurricane-prone areas to have a backup plan in case they only get 72 or 48 hours of notice that a storm could impact their area.”
That means the rest of Accuweather’s information (which supplied the rest of this article), takes on additional importance:
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September. There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020,” said DaSilva. “The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active.”
DaSilva says sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content, or the depth that warm waters reach beneath the surface, are near or at record-high levels across much of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
Accuweather also notes that although hurricanes often make headlines for their landfall with destructive wind gusts, expert meteorologists say that storms are creating bigger impacts reaching farther inland.
“The inland impacts we’ve already seen from hurricanes this year are vivid reminder that everyone needs to be prepared across much of the eastern United States, even if they live hundreds of miles from the coast,” warned DaSilva. “Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast, but that storm spun up dozens of destructive tornadoes as it moved inland from the Gulf Coast all the way to upstate New York, more than 1,400 miles away.”
Three rip current fatalities have been reported off the coast of the Carolinas already.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson says impacts from climate change and our warming atmosphere are leading to bigger hurricane seasons that can affect more people.
“With the climate changing, the lower atmosphere is warming, and warmer air is able to hold more moisture compared to cooler air, which can increase the risk for more extreme precipitation rates in a storm or hurricane,” said Anderson. “Sea surface temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where Debby saw its greatest increase in strength, continue to run near record high levels. The added amount of heat to these waters clearly provided an additional boost of energy for the storm before it made landfall, allowing it to reach category 1 strength. Dry air on the western side of the storm may have prevented Debby from rapidly strengthening into a Category 2 or higher hurricane.”
Anderson says the risk of rapid intensification and coastal flooding has been increasing in recent decades and is expected to worsen in the future.
“The frequency of coastal flooding along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. has greatly increased over the past 60 years, with a notable acceleration since 2010,” said Anderson. “The rate of hurricane intensification has also significantly increased along the U.S. Atlantic coast over the past 40 years, likely due mostly to warming waters. This trend is projected to continue over the coming decades.”
Anderson says families, businesses, and officials along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts need to be prepared for more storm impacts, which could take a bigger financial toll in the years to come. The Mid-Atlantic is likely to feel the weather, as is the Northeast.
“As we continue to build more homes, rental homes and condos along the coast, and especially on barrier islands, we will see more damage and more people being displaced, resulting in even higher damage costs. We expect more and more insurers will continue to raise rates for coverage along the coast, or decline coverage in more high-risk and exposed areas,” explained Anderson. “If the demand to live along low-lying coastal areas continues to remain strong, then officials need to develop better strategies and regulations in order to further adapt to climate change and the worsening impacts.”
But don’t expect September to be the end of the threat. AccuWeather meteorologists have been forecasting a total of 20 to 25 named storms and four to six direct impacts on the United States this year. With extremely warm waters and favorable conditions expected, DaSilva says, tropical threats could extend will into November this year. The 2020 hurricane season currently holds the record of 30 named storms in one year.
“If the wind shear holds off and we see more influences from La Niña later this season, we could see one, two, or even three named storms in November,” said DaSilva.
The AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Hurricane Forecast issued in March warned that the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas faced a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season. DaSilva says three of those four areas have already been verified this season. Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas in July. Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region early on in the season, before making a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter says families and businesses should prepare for the likelihood of more impactful storms with travel and financial ripple effects that can be felt across the country.
“It’s been an already been a costly year for hurricane damage and impacts, and we haven’t even reached the peak of the season. We’ve seen historic flash flooding, destructive wind damage, and even dozens of damaging tornadoes spin up as these storms move inland,” Porter explained. “AccuWeather experts issued a preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Debby in the United States of $28 billion. AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Beryl last month in the United States is $28-32 billion.”
And when it comes to sports and other scheduled events, Accuweather says, "Tropical storms and hurricanes can cause major impacts at scheduled sports events at both indoor and outdoor venues. Gusty winds and flooding rain can complicate the setup and teardown operations. Tropical systems can cause major travel problems, making it difficult for crews, players, and fans to make it to scheduled events. We know delays, postponements, and cancellations are frustrating and upsetting, but event organizers and teams have to make tough decisions to keep everyone safe when there’s a storm in the forecast. Safety should be a top priority during hurricane season.”
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